No, Bitcoin is not in its ‘longest ever bear market’ — Here’s why

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Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) usually are not of their “longest ever bear market” and possibly usually are not even in a bear market in any respect, in response to some trade observers.

MN Buying and selling founder Michaël van de Poppe took to X (previously Twitter) on Aug. 27 to claim that Bitcoin is presently in its “longest bear market” in historical past.

“Proper now, the worth of Bitcoin is nowhere close to the valuation of the height in November ’21. It is down greater than 50% and in a bear market of 490 days,” the dealer wrote.

Van de Poppe’s assertion has introduced a lot consideration from X customers, amassing 1.3 million views and almost a thousand reposts on the time of writing. Some crypto fans, nonetheless, are assured that Van de Poppe’s data will not be the case.

To find out the size of the present “bear market” in crypto, it’s crucial to know that there are different interpretations of the time period.

“Factor is, the phrases ‘bull’ and ‘bear market’ are completely subjective,” Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan informed Cointelegraph. “It could imply both the worth has moved prior to now or that the worth is predicted to maneuver in a sure route sooner or later,” Greenspan mentioned, including:

“The paradox creates limitless alternatives for analysts to make pointless arguments in perpetuity.”

In accordance with Cointelegraph’s market editor Allen Scott, one could view the present market state of affairs as a “multi-year bear market now till a brand new all-time excessive is damaged.” Such a perspective means that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since reaching its historic peak close to $69,000 on Nov. 10, 2021, or for 659 days. The interval is even longer than the one talked about by Van de Poppe, nevertheless it’s nonetheless not the longest “bear market” primarily based on such an method.

As beforehand talked about by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin as soon as noticed its value beneath its earlier highs for a interval of 37 months — or about 1,125 days — between November 2013 and January 2017. For over three years, Bitcoin’s value didn’t reclaim $1,000 after hitting the worth mark in 2013.

After reaching $20,000 for the first time in December 2017, Bitcoin once more lagged behind the worth stage till December 2020, or for 1,095 days. However does that imply that Bitcoin was in a “bear market” throughout this era in any respect? Trying on the charts, one may say that Bitcoin was really on the trajectory of hitting its all-time peak of $68,000.

Bitcoin value chart between late 2017 August 2023. Supply: CoinGecko

In accordance with one other bear market time period interpretation, Bitcoin could not presently be in a bear market in any respect.

Some traditional definitions recommend {that a} bear market occurs when a market index or asset declines by 20% or extra from its current excessive. 

In accordance with information from CoinGecko, Bitcoin’s most up-to-date excessive occurred in mid-July 2023 at round $31,400. At present costs, Bitcoin is round 13% shy of that stage. Furthermore, the cryptocurrency has climbed 34% over the previous 12 months.

“Should you zoom out sufficient, Bitcoin is only one huge inexperienced candle and has been in a steady bull market since 2019. I suppose these that target brief timeframes may be experiencing a bear market,” Jan3 CEO Samson Mow informed Cointelegraph.

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The Bitcoin advocate additionally hinted that he sees the present market state of affairs as “very bullish” amid contributing elements like excessive inflation, lack of buying energy, spiraling debt and adoption by nation-states like El Salvador. Mow additionally has his personal definition of a bear market:

“A bear market is what excessive time choice crypto buyers expertise periodically.”

Quantum Economics’ Greenspan supported Mow’s remarks, arguing that Bitcoin has by no means even been in a bear market. “Taking the longest time-frame for each previous incidence and future expectations, we will nonetheless decide that Bitcoin at all times has and at all times might be in a bull market,” he acknowledged.

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