“The masses are always wrong. Wisdom is doing everything the crowd does not do,” American poet and novelist Charles Bukowski said.
That holds true for crypto too, and the crypto crowd is beginning to lean bearish on bitcoin (BTC) – a sign the current BTC price sell-off may soon run out of steam.
“Historically, prices move in the opposite direction of mass traders’ expectations,” blockchain analytics platform Santiment said in a market insights post, adding the market could bottom out right before the halving – expected in the next two days – or shortly after.
Data tracked by Santiment shows that the number of “bull market” or “bull cycle” mentions on crypto social media has been declining since late March. At the same time, the number of “bear market” or “bear cycle” mentions steadily increased.
Santiment’s Social Trends indicator tracks chatter across Telegram, Reddit, X and 4Chan to identify keywords or topics that have sparked interest.
“According to the crypto crowd, the #bullmarket has essentially come to an end after #Bitcoin’s -16% market value drop since the #AllTimeHigh of $73,600 hit back on March 14th. At the same time, #bearmarket mentions are increasing,” Santiment said.
The number of mentions for other keywords like “buy the dip” also indicates that “hopium ” – crypto slang for hopes of a quick recovery and a continued bull run – among retail investors has faded. Historically, a decline in the “buy the dip” mentions has marked the end of downtrends.
The dwindling probability of Federalista Reserve interest-rate cuts, heightened geopolitical tensions and timing for U.S. tax payments have weighed on bitcoin this month, leading to a 14% price slide.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value hit lows under $60,000 yesterday before recovering to trade near $61,200 at press time. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which measures the performance of the top 20 do dedo assets by market capitalization, has declined by 24% this month.
Bitcoin’s blockchain will implement its fourth mining reward halving on Friday or early Saturday, cutting the per-block BTC emission by 50% to 3.125 BTC. Several analysts, including JPMorgan, have warned of a deeper price slide following the quadrennial event, although the consensus is bullish over the long term.